Winter 2025 Commodity Insights

Winter 2025 presents a mixed outlook for Australian agriculture, with dry southern conditions, flood recovery in the north and strong export demand shaping performance across commodities. Livestock markets remain supported by northern restocking, grains show a growing regional divide, and fibre sectors face pressure from subdued prices and difficult seasonal conditions. Read the full report.

Key Takeaways

• Southern dry conditions drive destocking while northern regions rebuild herds.
• 2024/25 winter crop up 26 percent to 59.8 million tonnes.
• Wheat up 31 percent; pulses surge 34 percent.
• Wool volumes falling with lower fleece quality and softening prices.
• Global sugar and cotton markets pressured by high production and trade uncertainty.
• Horticulture production to reach $18.8 billion in 2025–26.

Market Context & Current State of Agriculture

Winter conditions highlight a contrast between dry southern regions and stronger northern and western seasons. Livestock turn‑off has surged in parts of the south, while northern demand remains strong. Grain production shows wide regional variability, dairy producers await pricing signals and fibre sectors face tightening supply and pricing uncertainty.

Major Trends Shaping the Agribusiness Industry

Trend 1: Farmland values stabilising

Land prices remain high but are now heavily driven by limited supply.

Key insight: Low property turnover is driving value more than output growth.

Trend 2: Divergent crop performance

North‑south divide grows as NSW, WA and QLD outperform VIC and SA.

Key insight: Regional resilience increasingly shapes national results.

Trend 3: Livestock restocking in the north

Northern demand offsets southern destocking.

Key insight: Herd rebuilding strengthens feeder and restocker demand.

Trend 4: Wool volumes falling

Lower fleece quality and reduced supply are pushing auction pass‑ins higher.

Key insight: Dry conditions weaken both yield and quality.

Trend 5: Dairy contraction continues

National milk pool continues to shrink while costs rise.

Key insight: Supply remains under pressure despite firm pricing.

Trend 6: Sugar impacted by floods

North Queensland flooding affects ratoon health, reducing 2025–26 output.

Key insight: Recovery depends on winter regrowth.

Trend 7: Cotton pressured by global oversupply

High global stocks and soft demand continue to dampen prices.

Key insight: China’s large crop reduces global import demand.

Trend 8: Horticulture growth steady

Sector on track for $18.8b value with strong export growth.

Key insight: Citrus, grapes and nuts lead export strength.

Challenges & Risks to Watch

• Dry southern conditions reducing pasture and crop prospects.
• Global tariff uncertainty affecting beef, cotton and wool demand.
• Ratoon recovery uncertainty in sugar regions.
• Labour and water constraints in horticulture.
• Weak global demand for some fibre commodities.

Future Outlook

Producers face another season defined by variability, with success dependent on timing, flexibility and regional conditions. Export demand remains strong across beef, pulses and horticulture, while fibres and dairy confront structural challenges. Seasonal conditions, trade negotiations and global demand trends will shape the year ahead.

Conclusion

Winter 2025 reinforces the importance of resilience and adaptability across Australian agriculture. With contrasting regional conditions and mixed commodity performance, producers who actively manage risk, optimise margins and align with global demand will be best positioned heading into spring.

Next steps

• Download the full version of ANZ Agri InFocus: Commodity Insights Winter 2025.
• Explore more of our Agribusiness banking services.
• Talk to one of our specialists by requesting a call back.