Summer 2025-56 Commodity Insights

Australia heads into summer 2025–26 with an agricultural sector showing resilience, strong production outcomes and renewed momentum across several major commodities. Seasonal rains have improved soil moisture in previously dry regions, livestock prices have surged to historic highs, and processors across multiple sectors are responding to tight supply and shifting global markets. While challenges remain, the broader outlook suggests a solid season supported by strong export activity and improving conditions. Read the full report.

Key Takeaways

• National winter crop volumes expected to rise around 2%.
• Beef exports are near record highs driven by strong US, China, Japan and Korea demand.
• Sheep and lamb prices are at multi-year highs due to tight supply.
• Wool prices have lifted strongly on historically low supply.

Market Context & Current State of Agriculture

Seasonal rainfall has improved conditions across previously dry regions, supporting crop yields and livestock restocking. Grain harvests are above long-term averages, although global oversupply is dampening prices. Livestock markets remain strong, with high demand and constrained supply supporting pricing across cattle, sheep and wool. Dairy producers face global price weakness, but domestic processors have increased farmgate returns. Forestry demand continues to rise but long-term supply constraints persist.

Major Trends Shaping the Agribusiness Industry

Trend 1: Strong harvests with softer global prices

Australia’s winter crop is well above average, led by barley, lentils and chickpeas, but global oversupply is keeping prices subdued.

Key insight:Yield strength is not price strength.

Trend 2: Record beef export demand

Beef slaughter volumes are high but prices remain firm due to strong international demand and feedlot activity.

Key insight: Export markets are absorbing supply and supporting pricing.

Trend 3: Sheep and lamb prices surge

Tight supply and strong demand have pushed lamb and mutton prices significantly higher.

Key insight: Supply constraints underpin strong price performance.

Trend 4: Wool prices rebound

Low wool supply is driving higher prices across merino and coarse wool categories.

Key insight: Limited supply is supporting price recovery.

Trend 5: Dairy sector divergence

Global dairy prices have fallen due to oversupply, but Australian processors have increased domestic prices to stabilise supply.

Key insight: The domestic dairy market is decoupling from global price trends..

Trend 6: Forestry faces long-term gaps

Plantation area has declined over a decade, creating a future structural supply gap despite strong demand growth.

Key insight: Plantation expansion is essential to meet long-term demand.

Challenges & Risks to Watch

• Subdued global grain and pulse prices.
• Persistent global dairy oversupply.
• Reduced sheep and lamb throughput limiting exports.
• Forestry land and supply constraints.
• Trade uncertainty across key export markets.

Future Outlook

Australia’s commodity outlook into 2026 remains broadly positive. Livestock sectors continue to show strength, grain volumes are above average, somewhat mitigating price pressures, and wool and forestry benefit from structural supply conditions. Dairy markets remain volatile globally, but domestic pricing support continues.

Conclusion

Australia enters summer 2025–26 in a position of relative strength, with livestock markets outperforming, harvests exceeding expectations and several industries benefitting from favourable global and domestic conditions.

Next steps

• Download the full version of ANZ Agri InFocus: Commodity Insights Summer 2025-26.
• Explore more of our Agribusiness banking services.
• Talk to one of our specialists by requesting a call back.