Spring 2025 Commodity Insights

As spring arrives, Australia’s agricultural industries are navigating mixed conditions. Livestock pricing remains strong on tight supply and restocker demand, while grains and dairy face subdued global markets. Wine exports have rebounded on China’s reopening, horticulture continues its growth trajectory and cotton, sugar and wool show varied performance heading into 2025–26. Read the full report.

Key Takeaways

• Wine exports up 13 per cent in value driven by China.
• Global grains prices subdued despite falling stocks.
• Cattle markets strong supported by restocker and processor demand.
• Lamb prices elevated due to low flock numbers.
• Wool season begins positively with low supply underpinning prices.
• Dairy opening prices lift but production lags.
• Sugar supported by tight global supply despite domestic weather impacts.
• Cotton moderates after strong seasons; exports resilient.
• Horticulture set for record $19b value.

Market Context & Current State of Agriculture

Producers have entered spring watching for rainfall essential to crop yield and pasture growth. Livestock prices are buoyed by low flock numbers and restocking, while croppers rely on spring rain to offset subdued global prices. Wine is recovering unevenly, dairy supply is constrained and horticulture demand remains strong.

Major Trends Shaping the Agribusiness Industry

Wine rebound concentrated in China

Wine exports rose 13 per cent, led by China’s reopening while US and EU markets remain subdued.

Key insight: China recovery masks declines elsewhere.

Grains: stable production, weak prices

Despite firming domestic forecasts, global oversupply keeps wheat, barley and canola prices flat.

Key insight: Record US corn crop drives feed grain weakness.

Cattle: restocker and export strength

Cattle prices surge with strong restocker activity and record exports.

Key insight: Global and domestic demand underpin elevated prices.

Lamb: supply tightness lifts prices

Low ewe numbers and poor marking rates keep lamb prices high.

Key insight: Tight supply expected well into 2026.

Wool: low supply, cautious demand

Early-season wool markets strengthen despite mixed global demand.

Key insight: Reduced supply supports price resilience.

Dairy: global weakness, domestic support

Opening prices improve but production falls in key states.

Key insight: Falling global stocks may lift medium-term prices.

Sugar: recovering production, global support

Flood recovery affects yields but global supply constraints support pricing.

Key insight: Brazil and India policy shifts tighten global supply.

Cotton: easing from highs

Production moderates while exports remain strong and sustainability drives premiums.

Key insight: Strong reputation offsets global price softness.

Horticulture: record growth

Production value forecast to hit $19b with strong Asian demand.

Key insight: Asia remains core driver of export momentum.

Challenges & Risks to Watch

• Global price softness in grains and dairy.
• Weather variability affecting yields and pasture.
• China demand uncertainty in wine and dairy.
• Labour and input cost pressures across sectors.
• Biosecurity and water availability risks in horticulture.

Future Outlook

Spring 2025 sets the stage for a mixed but largely positive year ahead. Livestock sectors are well positioned, grains depend heavily on spring rain and global price recovery, wine continues to rebuild and horticulture is expected to deliver another record year.

Conclusion

Spring 2025 highlights both resilience and divergence across Australian agriculture. With livestock strength, horticulture momentum and mixed conditions elsewhere, producers and exporters have opportunities to consolidate performance heading into 2026.

Next steps

• Download the full version of ANZ Agri InFocus: Commodity Insights Spring 2025.
• Explore more of our Agribusiness banking services.
• Talk to one of our specialists by requesting a call back.