Autumn 2025 Commodity Insights

Autumn 2025 brings a sense of regained normality for many Australian producers despite global tariff uncertainty and mixed seasonal conditions. Above‑average harvest outcomes, improving livestock markets and easing inflation shape a cautiously optimistic outlook heading into winter. Read the full report.

Key Takeaways

• Global tariffs creating uncertainty but limited direct risk to Australian agriculture.
• 2024/25 winter crop exceeds 55m tonnes, fifth‑largest on record.
• Wheat up 23 percent; chickpeas surge on export demand.
• Cattle liquidation easing as northern rains support demand.
• Lamb and mutton exports strong as slaughter volumes stay high.
• Wool prices recovering with volumes down year on year.
• Dairy prices supported by global strength and weak AUD.
• Sugar sector recovering from North Queensland floods.
• Cotton facing global oversupply and softer consumption.
• Wine exports recovering on China demand despite domestic challenges.

Market Context & Current State of Agriculture

Autumn sees Australian agriculture balancing improved domestic stability against significant global uncertainty. The Trump administration’s tariff actions have unsettled markets, but domestic seasonal variation, strong northern rainfall and an above‑average harvest support resilience across most commodities.

Major Trends Shaping the Agribusiness Industry

Trend 1: Global tariffs reshape agri sentiment

US tariff expansions create mixed risks and opportunities.

Key insight: Australian agri largely protected but indirectly exposed via global price flows.

Trend 2: Winter crop strength amid variability

NSW and WA drive national gains; VIC and SA hit by frost and dryness.

Key insight: Regional divergence continues to widen.

Trend 3: Livestock markets stabilising

Northern demand offsets southern destocking.

Key insight: Slaughter high but prices supported by export demand.

Trend 4: Lamb and mutton exports strong

Record mutton volumes in January; lamb exports diversified.

Key insight: Processor capacity underpinning stable prices.

Trend 5: Wool volumes fall as structure shifts

WA exits wool rapidly; micron categories down.

Key insight: Lower supply lifting price floor despite volatility.

Trend 6: Dairy supported by global prices

Global dairy rallies; Australian exports up.

Key insight: Farmgate prices likely to rise as costs persist.

Trend 7: Sugar impacted by North QLD floods

Ratoon health and logistics challenges affect yield outlook.

Key insight: Global deficits may support prices.

Trend 8: Cotton faces global oversupply

Production high globally; consumption soft.

Key insight: Demand shifts towards Vietnam and India.

Trend 9: Wine sector restructuring

Exports to China rebound; domestic consumption declines.

Key insight: Premium regions outperform bulk producers.

Challenges & Risks to Watch

• Global tariff escalation affecting trade flows.
• Dry southern conditions reducing livestock carrying capacity.
• Sugar yield uncertainty due to flood‑affected ratoons.
• Global cotton oversupply pressuring prices.
• Wine oversupply of reds restricting recovery.

Future Outlook

Autumn 2025 positions Australian agriculture for a stable winter, driven by strong export demand, a large harvest base and easing financial pressures. Global volatility remains a risk, but domestic resilience and sector diversification support cautious optimism.

Conclusion

Autumn 2025 reinforces that adaptability and margin discipline are central to managing global and domestic volatility. With strong production foundations and improving demand signals, the sector enters winter with balanced optimism.

Next steps

• Download the full version of ANZ Agri InFocus: Commodity Insights Autumn 2025.
• Explore more of our Agribusiness banking services.
• Talk to one of our specialists by requesting a call back.