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As Australians head toward Easter Sunday on 5 April, one of the annual rituals around the event has begun. Not the planning for the egg hunt, or the preparation for the Sunday family gathering - but the annual debate about cocoa prices and how much they will impact the cost of the foil-wrapped eggs and chocolate bunnies lining the shelves.
"On average, shoppers spend about $62 each on Easter chocolate, which is why even modest changes in price, size or packaging are noticed - and debated - so intensely once a year.”
On the surface, this year the headline sounds encouraging. Cocoa prices have fallen sharply from their extraordinary highs of 2024 and early 2025. At their peak, global cocoa prices briefly surged above US$12,000 per tonne (around A$18,000) in futures markets, while monthly average prices peaked closer to US$10,000-11,000 per tonne. Since then, they have fallen significantly, dropping back to around US$3,000-4,000 per tonne (around A$4,500-6,000) by early 2026. On paper, that looks like a dramatic easing - and it helps explain why many consumers expect cheaper Easter eggs this year.
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And Easter is not a small event. Australians are expected to spend around $2 billion on Easter food and chocolate, with roughly 17 million people buying treats over the period. On average, shoppers spend about $62 each on Easter chocolate, which is why even modest changes in price, size or packaging are noticed - and debated - so intensely once a year.
So, should Easter eggs be cheaper? Well, it’s not quite that straightforward…
The reality is that cocoa tells only part of the story, and often a smaller part than most people expect. An Easter egg is less a chocolate shape in shiny foil and more the result of a long, global supply chain, with most of its costs locked in well before it appears on a supermarket shelf.
Cocoa gets the headlines - but it is only one ingredient
Cocoa has dominated the conversation over the past few years because the price moves were so extreme. Until 2024, cocoa was a quiet commodity - trading for years in the low US$2,000s per tonne and attracting little attention outside the industry. That changed dramatically in 2024 and 2025, when prices surged as poor harvests, disease pressure and ageing cocoa trees hit West African supply, where around 60 percent of the world’s cocoa is produced. At the same time, chocolate makers and traders scrambled to secure supply, amplifying the price spike. Even after the collapse back to around US$3,000 per tonne - the lowest levels since mid2023 - cocoa remains well above the prices manufacturers had based their business models on for much of the past decade.
There is also a timing issue that often gets overlooked. The cocoa used in Easter eggs on shelves today was typically purchased by chocolate manufacturers and processors six to twelve months ago, often at or near the peak of the market. To manage risk, manufacturers hedge and lock in cocoa supplies well in advance - particularly for highly seasonal events like Easter, where production runs are planned months ahead. The result is that today’s retail prices are largely still reflecting yesterday’s cocoa market.
More importantly, cocoa is only part of the cost of an Easter egg. In a typical milk chocolate Easter treat, cocoa ingredients might account for roughly 10-20 per cent of the retail price, with the rest coming from sugar, dairy, packaging, energy, labour, transport and retail margins. That means movements in cocoa prices do matter - but when costs across packaging, dairy, energy and logistics are also elevated, cocoa is just one contributor to the price, rather than the whole explanation.
The surprisingly expensive part of an Easter egg
One of the least understood aspects of Easter chocolate is packaging. Easter eggs are far more packaging intensive than a standard chocolate bar, relying on foil wrapping, moulded shapes, plastic trays and decorative boxes - all of which add cost. Many of these inputs became more expensive after COVID due to higher materials prices, energy costs, freight disruptions and labour costs. A hollow Easter egg may contain less chocolate than it appears, but far more packaging than most consumers realise, which means that even if cocoa prices fall, the egg still carries a substantial cost base that limits how quickly - or how fully - prices can come down.
Not all chocolate is created equal
The impact of cocoa prices also varies by the type of chocolate, although that difference is not always obvious at the checkout. Dark chocolate contains the highest proportion of cocoa solids and is therefore the most exposed to cocoa price swings, while milk chocolate - which dominates Easter sales - spreads its costs across cocoa, dairy and sugar. White chocolate contains no cocoa solids at all, comprising instead of cocoa butter, dairy and sugar. In practice, however, retail prices tend to move broadly together across the chocolate aisle, because products are priced by brand, format and price point rather than ingredient mix alone. That means cocoa volatility affects manufacturers’ costs and margins differently, even if shelf prices appear relatively uniform.
From bean to bunny - a long journey
One little known part of the part of the Easter egg story is just how long the whole process takes. The chocolate inside an Easter egg bought in Australia today may contain cocoa beans harvested more than a year ago, whether in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana - which together dominate global supply - or in countries such as Ecuador, Nigeria or Papua New Guinea. After harvest, the beans are fermented and dried near the farm, shipped across oceans to processing hubs in Europe or Asia, turned into cocoa ingredients, shipped again, manufactured into chocolate, moulded into eggs, wrapped in foil, boxed, stored and only then sent to retailers.
That journey typically takes twelve to eighteen months from cocoa pod to shop purchase. To manage capacity and risk, Easter eggs are produced over many months rather than all at once - with manufacturing typically running from September through January, and some products made even earlier, particularly for imported or high-volume lines. It is a remarkably long global journey for something designed to disappear in a few bites or melt quickly on small fingers.
Where Easter eggs really come from
Another misconception is that most Easter eggs sold in Australia are made locally. While Australia has excellent chocolate manufacturers, many of the seasonal products seen on supermarket shelves are imported. Hollow eggs, bunnies and decorative gift packs are often produced offshore, particularly in Europe. Countries such as Germany, Italy and Belgium specialise in these products, with factories designed for moulded shapes, intricate designs and high-volume packaging.
Asia is also a major chocolate producer, with countries like Malaysia and Indonesia acting as major hubs for cocoa processing and chocolate production, supplying a mix of branded and private label products into global markets, including Australia. New Zealand is another major supplier, but with a different focus. Its exports are more concentrated in everyday products - blocks, bars and family packs - supported by its strong dairy sector and proximity to Australia.The difference is therefore about product type as much as geography. Europe tends to supply higher-value, seasonal chocolate designed for gifting, while Asia and New Zealand supply more of the chocolate consumed year-round. Interestingly, when Australia’s chocolate imports are viewed by value relative to weight, the highest priced chocolate per kilogram actually comes from the United Kingdom and the United States - reflecting premium, branded and highly packaged products - while New Zealand continues to supply large volumes of more affordable, everyday chocolate.
The difference is therefore about product type as much as geography. Europe tends to supply higher-value, seasonal chocolate designed for gifting, while Asia and New Zealand supply more of the chocolate consumed year-round. Interestingly, when Australia’s chocolate imports are viewed by value relative to weight, the highest priced chocolate per kilogram actually comes from the United Kingdom and the United States - reflecting premium, branded and highly packaged products - while New Zealand continues to supply large volumes of more affordable, everyday chocolate.
Are consumers changing how they buy?
Easter remains one of the largest chocolate sales periods of the year, alongside Christmas. Australians consume around 4.5 to 5 kilograms of chocolate per person annually, and a significant share of that flows through seasonal peaks. What appears to be changing is not whether people buy Easter chocolate, but how they buy it. There is some evidence that, in a higher cost environment, shoppers are becoming more selective - buying fewer very large novelty eggs and focussing on more midsized products, multipacks and clearer value options. At the same time, premium products continue to grow, with some consumers choosing fewer items but trading up in quality. Easter, like coffee, sits in that category of small indulgences that many consumers are reluctant to give up entirely, even during periods of cost of living pressure.
The Easter egg - a wonder of globalisation
Right up until closing time on Easter Saturday, many of us will do the same thing. We’ll duck into the supermarket, stand in front of the Easter aisle, and try to work out how many eggs to buy for the kids - and how many we can reasonably justify for ourselves. Some will be earmarked for Easter Sunday, others quietly rationed out over the following week with the occasional “just a nibble” in the evening. After all, everyone knows chocolate Easter eggs don’t really count in terms of your diet.
Even if you pause to notice the price, chances are you’ll still buy roughly what you bought last year. Easter only comes once a year, and it sits in that small, indulgent category of spending where tradition tends to win out over strict budgeting.
What’s easy to forget is that the egg or bunny in your basket is far more than a colourful confection. It’s an unsung marvel of food engineering, encapsulating everything that’s possible when a truly globalised food supply chain works as intended - with cocoa, packaging, energy, freight, labour and retail decisions all coordinated months before Easter arrives. That long lead time is why falling cocoa prices don’t translate into welcome chocolate price falls at the checkout. This is all worth keeping in mind - right up until you hide that Easter Egg somewhere in the garden and immediately realise you should probably move it before the dog finds it first.
Michael Whitehead is Executive Director, Food, Beverage and Agribusiness at ANZ
The views and opinions expressed in this communication are those of the author and may not necessarily state or reflect those of ANZ.
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