Small rebound
- Consumer confidence rose 0.9pts last week to 68.0pts. The four-week moving average dropped 1.5pts to 69.4pts.
- ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ rose 0.2ppt to 6.1%, while the four-week moving average ticked up 0.1ppt to 6.0%.
- ‘Current financial conditions’ (over the last year) increased 1.4pts, and ‘future financial conditions’ (next 12 months) lifted 1.2pts.
- ‘Short-term economic confidence’ (next 12 months) was up 1.2pts, while ‘medium-term economic confidence’ (next five years) gained 0.5pts.
- The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex lifted 0.5pts.
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The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rating is based on 1,019 interviews conducted online and over the telephone during the week to Sunday. *Not seasonally adjusted.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.9pts last week, partially reversing the prior week’s decline following the RBA’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.60% in September. Confidence improved across all five subindices, led by gains in personal financial conditions. Despite the small rise, confidence remains well below its long-run average. This suggests higher rates and inflation continue to weigh on households and are likely to slow consumer demand over the near term.
Weekly inflation expectations remain elevated compared to the beginning of the year. Today’s release of the minutes from the RBA Monetary Policy Board’s September meeting will provide a clearer indication of how the RBA is assessing the balance between slower activity and persistently elevated inflation pressures. We continue to think another 25bp increase in the cash rate in November is more likely than not, as we expect Q3 trimmed mean (underlying) inflation to exceed the RBA’s forecasts.
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