Little changed
- Consumer confidence rose 0.2pts last week to 67.9pts. The four-week moving average dropped 0.6pts to 67.7pts.
- ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ ticked up 0.1ppt to 6.3%, while the four-week moving average rose 0.1ppt to 6.1%.
- ‘Current financial conditions’ (over the last year) increased 5.4pts, and ‘future financial conditions’ (next 12 months) lifted 0.4pts.
- ‘Short-term economic confidence’ (next 12 months) was up 1.8pts, while ‘medium-term economic confidence’ (next five years) decreased 0.2pts.
- The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex eased 6.3pts.
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The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rating is based on 1,019 interviews conducted online and over the telephone during the week to Sunday. *Not seasonally adjusted.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was broadly steady last week but the series remains historically weak. While household’s financial and economic confidence improved in the week, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex recorded the largest fall across the subindices.
On a four-week moving average basis, weekly inflation expectations lifted to their highest level since May. This comes as the RBA appears to be seeing some movement in inflation expectations, with Deputy Governor Hauser noting, in a fireside chat last week, that “[w]e can’t allow expectations to shift away from the target”. Q3 CPI data are due Wednesday 28 October, and we expect trimmed mean (underlying) inflation to print at 1.0% q/q. This is likely to see the RBA increase the cash rate to 4.85% at its November meeting.
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