Five-month low
- Consumer confidence fell 1.7pts last week to 66.2pts. The four-week moving average dropped 0.2pts to 67.5pts.
- ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ ticked down 0.2ppt to 6.1%, while the four-week moving average rose 0.1ppt to 6.2%.
- ‘Current financial conditions’ (over the last year) decreased 6.0pts, and ‘future financial conditions’ (next 12 months) declined 2.9pts.
- ‘Short-term economic confidence’ (next 12 months) was down 0.8pts, while ‘medium-term economic confidence’ (next five years) increased 1.5pts.
- The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex rose 0.1pts
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The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rating is based on 1,019 interviews conducted online and over the telephone during the week to Sunday. *Not seasonally adjusted.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.7pts to 66.2pts last week, its lowest level since late May, led by weaker confidence in personal finances. On a four-week moving average basis, the inflation expectations figure remains at its highest level since late May. This follows last week’s Q3 CPI print, which showed annual trimmed mean (underlying) inflation was slightly stronger than expected at 3.7% y/y.
Consumer confidence remains well below its long-run average ahead of today’s RBA meeting. We expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp and see some risk that the cash rate reaches 5.10% in December or February. Elevated inflation and the higher interest rate environment are likely to weigh on household spending, particularly as economic activity remains soft and if the unemployment rate trends higher.
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