Edges higher
- Consumer confidence rose 0.3 points last week to 75.6 points. The four-week moving average lifted 0.7 points to 75.4 points.
- ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 5.8 per cent, while the four-week moving average was unchanged at 5.6 per cent.
- ‘Current financial conditions’ (over the last year) increased 0.8 points, and ‘future financial conditions’ (next 12 months) fell 2.1 points.
- ‘Short-term economic confidence’ (next 12 months) declined 1.6 points, while ‘medium-term economic confidence’ (next five years) was up 0.8 points.
- The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex gained 3.8 points.
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The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rating is based on 1,041 interviews conducted online and over the telephone during the week to Sunday. *Not seasonally adjusted.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose just 0.3 points last week. A jump in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex was largely offset by weaker confidence in personal finances and the economic outlook. The re-escalation of conflict in the Middle East last week likely weighed on confidence and partly contributed to the tick up in weekly inflation expectations.
While our base case remains for the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent until H2 2027, we do not rule out the risk of further inflationary pressures to push the RBA to increase the cash rate in November, assuming the Monetary Policy Board leaves the cash rate unchanged at its August meeting.
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