Job ads down following unemployment rate rise

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 3.1 per cent month on month in March following a 3.2 per cent month on month rise in February. The trend series rose 0.3 per cent month on month but was down 0.3 per cent in annual terms.

Image

"ANZ‑Indeed Australian Job Ads fell by 3.1 per cent month on month in March, reversing most of the 3.2 per cent month on month increase recorded in February," ANZ Economist, Aaron Luk said.

"ABS Job Vacancies rose 2.7 per cent in the three months to February, driven by a 3.2 per cent quarter on quarter rise in the private sector. This is consistent with the pick-up in our Job Ads series over the same period. The fall in Job Ads in March followed the unemployment rate rising to 4.3 per cent in February 2026.

"The minutes of the March RBA Monetary Policy Board meeting noted that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East has the potential to lead to a reduction in labour demand. The Board also suggested “a rise in the cost of living could prompt workers to enter the labour market, as had been the case two years earlier, reducing labour market tightness”.

"Other comments were less bearish about the labour market in the near term. We expect the labour market to soften in the coming year as a result of rate hikes and softening economic activity. We forecast the unemployment rate to lift to around 4.6 per cent in Q1 2027 and move broadly sideways through the year to 4.5 percent in Q4 2027.

"We forecast the economy will grow below its potential rate through both 2026 (1.3 per cent year on year to Q4) and 2027 (1.8 per cent year on year to Q4), limiting the opportunity for the labour market to retighten in that time."

Download PDF

For media enquiries contact:

Siobhan Jordan

Senior Manager,  Media Relations

+61 403 988 326