Olive oil’s global shake up: A fresh opening for Australia

From the bottle beside the stove to the drizzle over weekend brunch, olive oil has become a familiar part of Australian kitchens. With global supply still recovering from two difficult seasons, Australia’s rapidly maturing olive industry is standing out as a stable and promising contributor to the olive oil market.

As explored in ANZ’s Food for Thought – Summer 2025/26 report, global disruption has reshaped the olive oil landscape in unexpected ways.

Gerry Karam, Head of Food, Beverage and Agribusiness – Institutional at ANZ, said: “Southern Europe has been hit by two extremely difficult seasons, and while production is improving, it remains well below earlier highs.

“Prices surged to record levels, eased through mid-2024, and now appear to be climbing again. That volatility has been challenging for consumers, but it has created genuine opportunity for newer producers such as Australia.”

Spain, Italy and Greece – traditionally responsible for more than two thirds of global output – suffered severe heat and drought across 2022/23 and 2023/24. Spain’s harvest fell from around 1.4 million tonnes to under 700,000 tonnes at its weakest point.

While production is forecast to recover in 2024/25 and 2025/26, USDA data shows supply remains patchy and well below earlier peaks.

Benchmark prices more than doubled at the height of this shortage, fell sharply in early 2024, and are edging upwards again.

Australia, by contrast, has delivered one of its more stable periods. USDA figures show local production hovering around 20,000–21,000 tonnes – the second-highest level since 2021/22 – while exports have risen to their strongest point in three years.

Australians consume approximately 50,000 tonnes annually, meaning domestic producers already supply about one third of the market, with scope to expand further.

“Olive oil is no longer a niche ingredient. It is part of daily cooking, supported by health trends, and the appeal of the Mediterranean diet. That shift is driving interest in provenance, freshness and trusted brands – areas where Australian producers excel,” Mr Karam continued.

Australia’s counter-seasonal harvest, modern groves and focus on extra virgin quality position homegrown products well as global buyers diversify beyond Europe. At the same time, investors are reassessing olives as a long-lived, land-backed crop with growing export potential into Asia and North America.

“Global production will eventually normalise, but the market has fundamentally changed. For Australian growers and processors, this period offers a real chance to build premium, export-ready brands at a time when the world is more open than ever to high-quality olive oil,” Mr Karam concluded.

Further insights can be found in the Summer 2025/26 edition of ANZ’s Food for Thought report.

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