22 August 2018
House view
Rising interest rates in the US and firmer China policy remain a headwind to strong earnings. These headwinds have been intensified by the risk that trade wars could escalate. This year, business expectation surveys have eased and signs have emerged of some softening in the US housing market. The lift in US rates has also increased stress on the more vulnerable emerging markets, particularly Turkey where the local currency has depreciated sharply. Our scorecards signal that global growth momentum has peaked and is now gradually easing, primarily due to a modest slowdown in Europe and China and early signs that US momentum is now also easing.
While our key indicators continue to suggest a slowdown, the strength of the negative signal is mild. There are also a number of other shorter-term indicators we believe are supportive of continued growth with financial conditions still supportive. This leaves us at a point where we’re carefully balancing near-term upside potential from solid earnings with longer-term signals around 1 year forward that point to slower growth and returns. However, these indicators are still far from flashing recession signal.
Looking ahead, we see three key risks that could drive our current slowdown signals to recession levels:
We’ll be watching carefully to see how these risks play out. The good news is that China has started to ease policy and trade war risks have moderated. In the meantime, we expect growth to slow further, with markets more susceptible to downside risks. For our investment strategy, we continue to hold a neutral position to most asset classes. However, we consider that a more defensive stance around a neutral position will likely become prudent as we expect growth to moderate further and our investment cycle clock continues to flag heightened vulnerability to downside risks.
| Asset class | Position relative to benchmark/outlook1 | Strategy positions |
|---|---|---|
| Growth assets | ||
| Australian equities | Neutral | Offer an attractive yield and can continue to perform well relative to bonds. |
| International equities | Neutral | We expect relatively good performance, with good but easing economic and earnings momentum. |
| Emerging markets | Neutral | Growth momentum has eased across emerging market economies, with more challenges to come as US rates rise. |
| Listed real assets2 | Neutral | Valuations are relatively attractive relative to shares, with consistent earnings and fundamentals supportive. |
| Defensive assets | ||
| Fixed income | ||
| Australia | Neutral | Corporate bonds will struggle as leverage increases and the investment cycle matures. |
| International | Underweight | We expect low but positive returns, with rising interest rates overseas and steady rates locally. |
| Cash3 | Neutral | |
| Currency | ||
| AUD | Neutral | We expect low but positive returns, with rising interest rates overseas and steady rates locally. |
"While our key indicators continue to suggest a slowdown, the strength of the negative signal is mild”, Mark Rider CIO
Notes:
1. Equities, fixed income and cash are relative to benchmark. Currencies are relative to an absolute return outlook (short term).
2. Comprises of 50/50 split between GREITs (global real estate investment trusts) and infrastructure securities.
3. Cash is the balancing asset class. Cash is a residual to portfolio manager’s overall implementation of other asset class strategies. It continues to form part of the overall defensive asset allocation, with PMs having flexibility in terms of how to implement the stated defensive asset strategy across fixed income and cash. In the RIC model cash overweight to facilitate an underweight position we hold in international bonds and to manage overall fund duration.
As at 22 August, 2018.
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Mark is responsible for delivering an overarching investment strategy, including asset allocation, investment themes, investment manager and product selection and monitoring for ANZ Wealth in Australia. Before joining ANZ in 2013, Mark spent 15 years at UBS and 10 years at the Reserve Bank of Australia, making him a well-recognised and respected member of the Australian investment community.
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