The ANZ job advertisement series measures the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and Internet sites covering the capital cities each month.
It has historically proved to be a very good indicator of future labour market conditions and thus, is extensively relied upon for forecasting employment growth.
The April 2003 edition of the Australian Bureau of Statistics publication, Australian Labour Market Statistics (catalogue no. 6105.0), presents the results of an analysis of leading indicators of employment growth over the period 1984 to 2002.
While most of this analysis focuses on the ABS' own job vacancies series, the study also concludes that ANZ (newspaper) job advertisement series leads peaks in employment growth by one to three quarters, and troughs in employment by zero to two quarters. The ABS analysis finds that the ANZ job advertisement series has a correlation coefficient of 0.75 with employment growth at a lead period of three quarters.
In this presentation, given to the PANPA newspaper advertising forum in April 2005, economist Katie Dean overviews the history and success of the ANZ job advertisement series and considers recent challenges the series has faced.
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