ANZ

Saul Eslake, ANZ Chief Economist gives his opinion on the global credit crisis and what it means for Australia in video interview on Friday 24 October.

2008

• Some reflections on the differences between recessions and depressions - November 2008 (PDF 102KB)
• Some reflections on government responses to the global financial crisis - October 2008 (PDF 28KB)
• 'Plenty of bumps before we're out of this mess' - October 2008 (PDF 28KB)

Saul Eslake's responses to a 'roundtable discussion' among economists published by the Financial Review on 11th October 2008.


• Implications of the global financial crisis for the Australian economy - October 2008 (PDF 21KB)

Op-ed article published in the Melbourne Herald-Sun on 11th October 2008.


• Why Australian house prices aren't likely to fall - October 2008 (PDF 34KB)

Some thoughts about the impact of the financial crisis on Australian house prices: the key message being that, in general, across-the-board falls in Australian house prices along the lines now happening in the US and Britain seem unlikely.


• Turbulent times for the global and Australian economies - October 2008 (PDF 472KB)

Chart pack used in presentations by Saul Eslake around Australia in early October.


• New Fiscal Possibilities - September 2008 (PDF 75KB)

Talk by Saul Eslake to Australia & New Zealand School of Government Annual Conference on 'Making Federalism Work', 12th September 2008.


• Change in interest rate outlook - September 2008 (PDF 20KB)

Article prepared for September 2008 issue of Accelerated Answers, a newsletter for clients of ANZ Margin Lending.


• Presentation to Victorian Parliamentary Labor Party offsite - August 2008 (PDF 143KB)

Slides accompanying Saul Eslake's talk to an offsite held by the Victorian Cabinet and Parliamentary Labor Party at Macedon, north-west of Melbourne, on 15th August 2008, looking at longer-term economic and job prospects for Victoria.


• Presentation to International CEO Forum - August 2008 (PDF 346KB)

Slides accompanying Saul Eslake's presentation to an International CEO Forum in Melbourne on 14th August 2008. (Similar presentations were also given to ANZ Rural & Regional Banking events in Hamilton, Victoria on 4 August and Port Lincoln, SA, on 12 August).


• Economic consequences of an ETS - August 2008 (PDF 27KB)

Article by Saul Eslake and Julie Toth published by the Australian Financial Review on 6th August 2008.


• Presentation to ASX/ASA Investor Hour lunchtime lecture - August 2008 (PDF 364KB)

Slides accompanying Saul Eslake's talk to the Australian Stock Exchange/Australian Shareholders' Association lunchtime lecture series in Melbourne on 6th August 2008.


• Reserve Bank signals rate cut coming soon - August 2008 (PDF 21KB)

Op-ed article by Saul Eslake published by the Australian Financial Review on 6th August 2008.


• Economics, Interest Rates and Currencies Chart Pack for ANZ Senior Management - June 2008 (PDF 741KB)

Chart pack prepared for the quarterly meeting of ANZ's Group Assets & Liabilities Committee, which oversights the management of ANZ's balance sheet.


• The return of stagflation? - June 2008 (PDF 22KB)

Op-ed article by Saul Eslake published in the Australian Financial Review 18 June 2008.


• The world economy and Australia's resources sector - May 2008 (PDF 252KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the WA Mining Club, 20th May 2008.


• Inflation and the Reserve Bank's inflation target - April 2008 (PDF 24KB)

Article by Saul Eslake published in the Australian Financial Review on 30th April 2008.


• Reflections on the 2020 Summit and proposals for tax reform - April 2008 (PDF 21KB)

Article by Saul Eslake published in the Business section of the Melbourne Age newspaper on 25th April 2008.


• Education, Innovation and Australia's Economic Future - April 2008 (PDF 65KB)

Address by Saul Eslake to the annual conference of the Australian College of Educators, 14th April 2008.


• Property Industry Outlook for 2008 - Brisbane - April 2008 (PDF 396KB)
• Property Industry Outlook for 2008 - Melbourne - April 2008 (PDF 400KB)
• Property Industry Outlook for 2008 - Sydney - April 2008 (PDF 399KB)

In April Institutional launched the inaugural ANZ Property Industry Forums in Melbourne, Sydney and Queensland. Attended by senior Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) and Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), the forums provided our key Institutional Banking and Corporate Banking property clients with the property industry outlook for 2008. Guest speaker on the day was Paul Braddick, Head of ANZ Property and Financial System Research. Paul's presentations provided clients with valuable insights around how current market factors might influence the outlook of the property industry in 2008.


• Economics, Interest Rates & Currencies Chartpack for ANZ Senior Management - March 2008 (PDF 423KB)

Chart pack prepared for the quarterly meeting of ANZ's Group Asset and Liabilities Committee on 5th March 2008.


• Presentation to ABARE Outlook Conference - March 2008 (220KB)

Saul Eslake's presentation to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) Annual Outlook Conference in Canberra on 4th March 2008.


• Talk to the NSW Fabian Society - February 2008 (PDF 45KB)

Talk by Saul Eslake to the NSW Branch of the Fabian Society in Sydney on 20th February 2008 on 'Economic Challenges Facing the New Labor Government'. The Fabian Society is a 'think tank' which, according to its website, aims to "contribute to a renaissance of left of centre and progressive thought, by generating, and disseminating ideas that are original, meet the challenge of the times, and are of high intellectual quality", and is modelled on the British society of the same name founded in the late 19th century by Sidney and Beatrice Webb (who also established the London School of Economics), George Bernard Shaw and others.


• Economic Outlook for 2008 (PDF 333KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to various groups of ANZ customers during February 2008, examining the current upheavals in global financial markets, their implications for the world economy and for Asia, and the outlook for the Australian economy and markets in 2008.


• China and India in the World Economy: Implications for Australia - February 2008 (PDF 302KB)

Presentation to a CFO Forum in Melbourne on 5th February 2008.

2007

• Re-orienting Fiji for Growth - December 2007 (PDF, 352kb)
• Korea and Australia in a Globalised World - November 2007 (PDF, 136kb)
• ANZ Election Result Report - November 2007(PDF, 282KB)
• Economics, Interest Rates and Currencies Chart Pack - November 2007(PDF, 967KB)

Chart pack prepared for the November 23 2007 quarterly meeting of ANZ's Group Assets and Liabilities Committee which oversights the management of ANZ's balance sheet.


• Asian ALCO - October 2007(PDF, 446KB)

A presentation by Amy Auster prepared for Asian ALCO during October 2007.


• ANZ Election 2007 Update - October 2007(PDF, 220KB)
• Economic influences on the Australian mortgage market - October 2007(PDF, 522KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to Choice Aggregation Services' annual conference in Perth on 3rd October 2007.


• Presentation to Agribusiness Seminars in conjunction with Field Days - September/October 2007 (PDF, 714KB)

Slides used by Saul Eslake in presentations to ANZ Rural & Regional Banking Field Day Agribusiness Seminars in Albury (NSW), Geraldton (WA), Moonta (SA) and Echuca (Vic) in September and October 2007.


• Social Policy in a Fully Employed Economy - September 2007 (PDF, 105KB)

The 2007 Sambell Oration to a Brotherhood of St Laurence conference on 'The economic and social imperative: tapping the potential of disadvantaged Australians' in Melbourne on 27th September 2007.


• How the China-Driven Commodities Boom is Driving Australia's and Britain's Economic Cycles Apart - September 2007 (PDF, 61KB)

Address by Saul Eslake to an Australia-Britain Chamber of Commerce lunch in Melbourne on 26th September 2007.


• Behind the recent turmoil in global financial markets - September 2007 (PDF, 27KB)

A note prepared by Saul Eslake for inclusion in a forthcoming newsletter for ANZ Margin Lending clients.


• Economics, Interest Rates and Currencies Chart Pack prepared for ANZ Senior Management - August 2007 (PDF, 586KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the quarterly meeting of ANZ's Group Asset and Liabilities Committee, which oversights the management of ANZ's balance sheet, on 24th August 2007.


• Reserve Bank's latest rate hike underscores its independence - August 2007 (PDF, 23KB)

Op-ed article by Saul Eslake published in the Melbourne Age on 9th August 2007.


• Economic Outlook for Asia - July 2007 (PDF, 874KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Madrid, Spain on 4th July 2007.


• How the commodity boom is underwriting the renewed acceleration in Australian economic growth - June 2007 (PDF, 22KB)

Op-ed article by Saul Eslake on the March quarter 2007 national accounts, published in the Australian Financial Review on Thursday 7th June 2007.


• Outlook for the Australian Economy and Property Markets - June 2007 (PDF, 455KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to a luncheon hosted by the Victorian Division of the Property Council of Australia in Melbourne on 1st June 2007.


• Financial Implications of an Ageing Population - May 2007 (PDF, 644KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to Aged & Community Care Victoria's Annual State Congress on 25th May 2007. It updates previous presentations on this subject to incorporate the conclusions of the Government's most recent Intergenerational Report published in April this year.


• Economics, Interest Rates and Currencies chart set prepared for ANZ Senior Management - May 2007 (PDF, 724KB)

A collection of charts on the global, Australian and New Zealand economies, interest rates and currencies prepared for the meeting of ANZ's Group Asset & Liability Committee (which oversights the management of ANZ's balance sheet) on 25 May 2007.


• Post-Budget Presentation to Canberra Branch of the Economics Society - May 2007(PDF, 743KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the Canberra Branch of the Economics Society on 14th May 2007 - a more detailed look at the 2007-08 Budget than was possible on the night of the Treasurer's Budget Speech.


• Commuting the Death Sentence: The Role of Editors in the Australian Economy - May 2007 (PDF, 68KB)

Address by Saul Eslake to the 3rd National Conference of the Institute of Professional Editors in Hobart on 11th May 2007. ('Death Sentence' was the title of a 2003 book by Don Watson, a speechwriter for former Prime Minister Paul Keating, decrying the 'decay of public language').


• Global, Australian and NZ economies: presentations to clients in South East Asia (PDF, 1MB)

Slides used by Saul Eslake in presentations to clients in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok from 23-26 April 2007


• Economists and the Arts - April 2007(PDF, 80KB)

Talk by Saul Eslake to a dinner hosted by the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce and the Australian Business Arts Foundation in Adelaide on 16th April 2007, looking at the contributions of three economists to public and private support for the arts in Britain and Australia, and at the broader case for support for the arts.


• New Threats to Globalization - April 2007(PDF, 70KB)

Saul Eslake's address to the 20th Annual Asian Trade Promotion Forum, hosted by the Australian Trade Commission (Austrade) at the Sydney Opera House on 12th April 2007.


• Economic influences on the Australian Housing Market (Report) - March 2007 (PDF, 23KB)
• Economic influences on the Australian Housing Market (Slides) - March 2007 (PDF, 451KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the Australian Financial Review's Housing Congress in Melbourne on 8th March 2007, and an op-ed piece published in the Financial Review on 12th March 2007 based on this presentation.


• Outlook for the Australian economy in 2007 (PDF, 630KB)

Slides used by Saul Eslake in presentations to ANZ customers and a number of business conferences around Australia during February 2007, assessing the outlook for the global and Australian economies in 2007.


• Outlook for the Japanese economy in 2007 (PDF, 352KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the Queensland Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Brisbane on 23rd February 2007.


• Economic Outlook for 2007 (PDF, 542KB)

Saul Eslake's presentation to the Annual ANZ-West Coast Eagles 'Footy and Economics' breakfast in Perth, Western Australia, on 16th February 2007. The breakfast was attended by over 1000 people and also addressed by 2006 AFL Premiership coach John Worsfold.


• The Australian Economy - 2007 Edition (PDF, 503KB)

Saul Eslake's annual presentation to visiting Economics and Politics students from the University of Delaware (on 15th January 2007), which looks at the performance of the Australian economy over the past two decades, and compares and contrasts it with that of the United States.


• An Introduction to the Australian Economy - 2007 Edition (PDF, 471KB

The annual update of a primer on the Australian economy for foreign investors and analysts, originally created in 2000 for Encyclopedia Americana.


• Whatever happened to the 'productivity revolution'? - January 2007 (PDF, 37KB)

Extended version of an Op-ed article published in the Sydney Morning Herald on 10th January 2007


• Key influences on the outlook for Australian financial markets in 2007 - January 2007 (PDF, 24KB)

Op-ed piece by Saul Eslake published by the Australian Financial Review on 8 January 2007

2006

• Some random thoughts on water management issues - December 2006 (PDF, 397KB)

Presentation to the Victorian Catchment Management Authority, Melbourne, on 13th December 2006


• Patterns in Investment Flows within APEC (Report) - December 2006 (PDF, 49KB)
• Patterns in Investment Flows within APEC (Slides) - December 2006 (PDF, 505KB)

Notes and slides from a talk given by Saul Eslake to a conference hosted by the Monash University Australian APEC Study Centre in Melbourne on 12th December 2006


• Housing Finance in Australia - November 2006 (PDF, 206KB)

A presentation by Saul Eslake to a meeting of the Bank for International Settlements Markets Committee in Sydney on 19 November 2006.


• The Economic Impact of Skills Shortages - October 2006 (PDF, 251KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to a conference on Workforce Development sponsored by CEDA and the South Australian Training & Skills Commission in Adelaide on 31st October 2006.


• Global and Asian economies, commodities, and Australia & New Zealand economies and financial markets - October 2006 (PDF, 1067KB)

Chart-pack prepared for a series of presentations by Saul Eslake in Hong Kong, Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo between 16th and 27th October 2006.


• China's Resource Needs and Australia's Resources Trade - October 2006 (PDF, 417KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the Australia-China Business Council's second Bi-Annual Forum in Beijing, China, on 23rd October 2006


• Outlook for the Global Resources Industry - September 2006 (PDF, 535KB)

Presentation to the WA Division of CPA Australia in Perth on 27th September 2006


• Asian Economic Outlook - September 2006 (PDF, 385KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to an ANZ Markets Investor Seminar held in conjunction with the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Singapore on Sunday 17th September 2006. This seminar was also addressed by (among others) incoming RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, Treasurer the Hon Peter Costello MP, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Philippines Finance Secretary Marrgarito Teves.


• Be prepared for yet higher interest rates - August 2006 (PDF, 24KB)

An article by Saul Eslake for the September edition of 'Accelerated Answers', the quarterly client newsletter of ANZ Margin Lending.


• Economic and financial market outlook 2006-07 - August 2006 (PDF, 615KB)

Slides used by Saul Eslake in presentations to fixed income investor clients of ANZ Markets in Sydney and Melbourne in mid-August 2006


• Economic, Interest Rates and Currencies Chart Set Prepared for ANZ Senior Management - August 2006 (PDF, 493KB)

A set of charts prepared for the August meeting of ANZ's Group Asset and Liability Committee, which oversights the management of ANZ's balance sheet.


• New Players in the International Capital Markets - June 2006 (PDF, 448KB)

A presentation by Amy Auster to APEC Future Economic Leaders Think Tank in June 2006.


• The 2006 Sell-off: How will Asia Fare ? (PDF, 629KB)

A presentation by Amy Auster to ANZ clients in June 2006.


• Economic Outlook for Asia - June 2006 (PDF, 425KB)

Presentation by Saul Eslake to the opening session of the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Milan, Italy, on 22 June 2006.


• Possible implications of the emergence of oil producers as net international creditors - June 2006 (PDF, 78KB)

Paper presented by Saul Eslake to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Milan, Italy, on 22nd June 2006. Oil exporting nations are now running larger current account surpluses than East Asian nations, and (depending on how these economies 're-cycle' these surpluses) this development could potentially have profound implications for the orderly financing of the US current account deficit and the stability of the global financial system.


• Post-Budget Outlook for the Australian Economy in 2006-07 - May 2006 (PDF, 385KB)

Charts used by Saul Eslake in presentations to ANZ Corporate, Business and Private Banking customers in Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Newcastle and Launceston in the second half of May 2006 - looking at the global economy, oil prices, monetary policy in major overseas economies, the end of the Australian housing boom, the new resources boom, and (against that background) an assessment of this year's Federal Budget.


• Ten Tips for Your Financial Future - May 2006 (PDF, 43KB)

A talk by Saul Eslake to a Rotary Youth Leaders Awards conference held at Turners' Beach, near Ulverstone on the north-west coast of Tasmania, on 31 May 2006.


• Is growth sustainable? - May 2006 (PDF, 127KB)

A paper on credit growth presented by Paul Braddick to the Eleventh Melbourne Money and Finance Conference, 19-20 May 2006.


• The importance of accurate, reliable and timely data - May 2006 (PDF, 30KB)

A discussion paper prepared by Saul Eslake for a group of 'Eminent Australians' chaired by Dr Fay Marles AM, former Chancellor of the University of Melbourne, which is working with the Indigenous community of the Goulburn Valley, Victoria, to assist in independently measuring and analysing the nature and success of government, community and commercial initiatives designed to foster the achievement of an equitable lifestyle for the region's Indigenous people.


• Presentation to Beef 2006 Seminar Rockhampton - May 2006 (PDF, 385KB)

Charts accompanying Saul Eslake's presentation to a seminar hosted in conjunction with Beef 2006 in Rockhampton, Queensland, on 3rd May 2006


• Economic, Interest Rates and Currencies Chart Set prepared for ANZ Senior Management - May 2006 (PDF, 588KB)

A set of charts prepared for the May meeting of ANZ's Group Asset and Liability Committee


• Australia and Britain: Previously Parallel Paths Now Diverging - April 2006 (PDF, 64KB)

In this address, given to a luncheon hosted by the Australia-Britain Chamber of Commerce in Sydney on 27 April 2006, Saul Eslake explores the parallels and differences between the economic and political cycles in Australia and Britain over the past quarter-century, the impact on Australia's economy of the current China-driven commodities boom, and the response to that of Australian economic policy.


• Outlook for Asia - March 2006 (PDF, 654KB)

A presentation by Amy Auster to ANZ clients in March 2006.


• Economic, interest rate and currencies chart pack prepared for ANZ Senior Management - March 2006 (PDF, 525KB)

Set of charts prepared for the quarterly meeting of ANZ's Asset and Liability Committee, which oversights the management of the bank's balance sheet.


• The economy in 2006 - February 2006 (PDF, 257KB)

Presentation to the annual ANZ-West Coast Eagles 'Football and Economics' breakfast in Perth, Western Australia, on 15th February 2006.